Rep. Tackey Chan - April 16, 2026

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Checking in again with State Representative Tacky Chan of Quincy for our Thursday edition of Tacky Talk. How are you, Tacky? [00:00:06] Speaker B: Hey, doing all right, Joe? It's the day after the houseways meeting released a budget and when the amendment process Due Friday at 5 the computer system closes 5pm Shark for amendments. So it's not too bad. Been busy for weeks. As you know. We had a debate once a week. I had a public hearing yesterday on my pennybell. We did some Chapter 90 local aid for roads and bridges, which the Senate's debating today on Thursday. And yeah, no, things are picking up. I mean it's a gradual, it's like a roller coaster in this place. There's a gradual rise to the crescendo and then we're just going to be, you know, running around insane and then as quickly as it hits the top of the ladder, it drops right off at the end when we slow down activity as we head to August 1st. You know, as you may be aware if you listen to past, past broadcasts, that July 31 is the kind of sort of deadline this year for the end of the cycle. So we're looking at essentially just over three and a half months to try to get everything else out through a session. Although we can't still move. We can still move things in from a session where one person could object once they get out of July 31st. However, the vast majority of us in the building would rather get stuff done before the August, the July 31st deadline. [00:01:27] Speaker A: Yep. I took a quick peruse of the the proposed House budget, $63.3 billion, not that far off from the governor's total. [00:01:36] Speaker B: Actually no, we're not. We're only $33 million below the governor's recommendation. So that means zero in terms of practical terms. And let's be frank about it, there'll be some amendments done along the way. So the number does bump up ever so slightly and the Senate will actually have a better projection because tax day was yesterday. So we get about 60 plus percent of our revenues, real money in April 15th. So when the end of numbers come in on May 1st, 2nd, 3rd, depending on when they get it out the same ways, it means we always have an up on the House regarding a better projection of total numbers for next fiscal cycle and they'll adjust their budget accordingly. Now, we do have a consensus revenue number on the whole, but the projections can always change a little here, a little there based on the current fiscal year. But I always remind folks, it's still a little curious about how things will play out when Oct. 1 on the big beautiful bill on obviously aware there's a ballot questions one of which is reducing the income tax to 4% over three years. The projection is that on January 1st was the first day goes in effect when it goes to 4.7. 4.7 for 5% is $800 million revenue loss. [00:02:59] Speaker A: That's a significant amount for sure. Yeah. [00:03:01] Speaker B: Which is hard to budget in because we don't know what the feds are going to do to us. As we've talked in the past, there are cost shifting their federal program employees onto the state. We're a partner with the federal government implementing those programs and expect that to happen. And we don't even know what the mass health impact is and we're still facing down the ACA expansion reduction and we addressed that in this year's budget to provide up to 500% of federal potty level to qualify the connector that we have here which is essentially the aca. So we're trying to backfill to the best we can. Some, not all, but some of the federal programs and some of the other federal things we're probably not going to be able to deal with. But we won't actually know all the impacts because of the regulatory process has to go through. And who knows, maybe there's another federal government shutdown for we know which then delays any type of notification to state's implementation. [00:03:57] Speaker A: Right, right. And as in years past, the biggest item in the budget is the MassHealth budget. I think it was almost $300 billion. [00:04:07] Speaker B: Oh well, it's well, $300, I think. You think $300 million increase. It's 30. [00:04:12] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:04:13] Speaker B: 30 billion plus dollars. [00:04:14] Speaker A: Right. [00:04:15] Speaker B: Is the way to look at it. So it's a little tricky number when I say that because with a budget $63 billion a segment of that, you know, close to $6 billion actually off the books. Meaning it goes to MBTA, it goes to certain debt services, it goes to school building assistance, which is basically debt service. So there's, there's something's already on books. But yeah. Also things like mass health, which is your Medicare, Medicaid is basically, to be honest with you, untouchable money. I mean. [00:04:42] Speaker A: Right. [00:04:42] Speaker B: That's your many of you listening, maybe your health insurance, but most definitely my mom's health insurance. Sure. [00:04:48] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:04:49] Speaker B: And the population pyramid as we talked about in the past is shifting towards you and me, interesting enough representing a larger part of the population. And we will someday be on mass health once we hit a certain age. Right. We'd be Medicare eligible. And then, you know, the bottom of the pyramids, not as many people. So the rising costs on that end of the budget is pretty, pretty substantial. And for those who indulge me, we'll glance through my PowerPoints here. [00:05:16] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:05:16] Speaker B: See if I have that. [00:05:18] Speaker A: Just to put that in perspective, that that's almost 50% of the entire state budget. [00:05:23] Speaker B: It is when you throw in local aid, which is almost $10 billion, like 9.7 plus. Yeah. You know, half the budget. About half the budget is local aid plus mass power. [00:05:36] Speaker A: Right. [00:05:36] Speaker B: So people talk about reducing taxes and cutting the budget. It's really on things like your parks and services, certain school programs. I mean that's where we're heading towards. Unless somebody here would like to advocate producing health care to your, to your family members and my family members. That's a big part of it. The fair share does not go towards mass health. Fair share can only use on certain education items as well as transportation. So for example, we put like a bunch of money back into MBTA, another $400 million to address budget deficits. You know, we also put in, you know, things like community college, free tuition program continues on certain persons and eligibility. But we also put in a lot of money into a continuation of universal schooling school lunch and breakfast for kids. [00:06:26] Speaker A: Yep, yep. I looked at the split. I think it's like 63, 36 between education, transportation, something like that. [00:06:32] Speaker B: Yeah, I'm sure someone is going to supposed to be 50, 50. Under the constitution we've actually managed to do that a bit via, via supplemental revenue. So the last couple of cycles the millionaire's tax has gone a bit over. Actually not a bit of a lot over than expected. And then we actually shifted it back to close to like 49, 51. You never know. 50 is a practical issue. [00:06:57] Speaker A: Right. [00:06:57] Speaker B: So it's, it's going to be, you know, we expect that maybe we're going to do some shifting around again, you know, across our fingers. Maybe there's a bit of a surplus, maybe. [00:07:08] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah. So, but again, it's just those two areas, right? Education, transportation, that's it. [00:07:14] Speaker B: Yeah, you're right. And that's a very limited scope. And some of the stuff you can argue is like one time costs. [00:07:19] Speaker A: Right. [00:07:19] Speaker B: So things like school, transportation, you know, maybe a temporary bump for one year, but maybe not next year. And we also have actually some interesting money using some money to backfill student reduction enrollment. So one of the unintended consequences, or maybe intended, I can't tell you this, of the ICE Rates around the state is that has caused certain families to not send their kids to school, which actually changes per pupil budget cost because the kids aren't there, which should have been there. And it really messes up the formula because it takes actual students in class. So you have to put some money in for cities and towns that have been adversely affected by not having kids complete school to ensure they still get their share of the Chapter 70 Local Aid for education. [00:08:01] Speaker A: Oh, interesting. I hadn't heard that. [00:08:04] Speaker B: Yeah, it's going to continue to be that case. So your mass health budget is 22.41 billion. You're right. It's almost $300 million more, which is 282 million. But if you take all the health and human services, which includes elder services, workers, nursing facilities, so forth and so forth, is about $32.2 billion. Okay. You throw in nearly $10 billion, 9.7 in local aid. You know, that puts you well over half the budget is composed of two components. That's a big part of it. And you throw into the pension liabilities, the mbta and the mass building assistance monies. That comes out to almost $8 billion. [00:08:44] Speaker A: Okay. So it leaves very little wiggle room there to play with in the. In the end, after those are paid. [00:08:51] Speaker B: Yeah. And the state deficit regarding paying bonds off, meaning paying our deb jelly, is almost jelly, will stay under 5%. Jelly's okay, 4, 3% every year, depending on the size of the budget. [00:09:01] Speaker A: Right. [00:09:01] Speaker B: So unlike certain organizations, which we are not named on this group, the state actually does a very good job on maintaining debt control. And the rainy day fund continues to be very, very strong. I mean, It's. It's over $8 billion, but it is a little bit dipped because we did dedicate the interest, some of the interest to the governor's office to match against federal infrastructure projects, which now has been screwed up, as you guys may be very aware, by the federal government, which means that that match is a problem. And some of it. Some of it could be reverting back to the stabilization fund if we're unable to utilize those matches. [00:09:38] Speaker A: Okay. All right, so it doesn't. So it won't get spent on if it, if it's not approved. [00:09:43] Speaker B: Yeah, because there's no match. I mean, the feds are restricting their infrastructure money. Then we have to match the infrastructure. There is no free lunch except for stimulus money. Gotcha. Except for federal students. Right, right. [00:09:55] Speaker A: No, I understand. Yeah. If there's no match, then there's. There's no project because you can't pay for it. [00:09:59] Speaker B: Yeah, it's generally between 20, 25% depending on the project we're talking about. [00:10:03] Speaker A: Okay, okay. [00:10:04] Speaker B: You know when we say federal infrastructure project. Yeah. The feds paid a big chunk of it, but we have to match. And if there is no project, there is no match because they won't give us the money. Then the money may go back to stabilization, but we'll kind of wait and see how it goes because everything's in a court right now. [00:10:18] Speaker A: Right, right. Although as I understand that the Cape Cod bridge project, that was a Biden administration thing. That's, that's all said. [00:10:24] Speaker B: Yeah, it just, it's really them making red tape for us to get the rest of it going. [00:10:28] Speaker A: I see, I see. [00:10:29] Speaker B: Okay. Again, they could be obstacles in other ways, but yeah, it's authorized in the. By administration, but they could, they. They're being difficult. [00:10:36] Speaker A: I gotcha. [00:10:37] Speaker B: And again, no construction equals a lot of worker reduction, which in my district, especially city Quincy, which has a lot of folks in the construction industry, you know, will definitely affect their paycheck and could potentially affect state tax revenues because it's all income tax driven. So if you compound this going to next fiscal cycle, given the enormous economic uncertainty caused by a war, Iran, fuel prices, reduction of federal spending as part of gdp, infrastructure projects not being kicked off the ground by the feds, end of grant monies to biotech industries and higher education, you know, you could see where you have like an awful storm where you have potentially some stagnation or reduction of state income taxes, plus reducing the state tax by 0.3% starting next year. The $800 million shortfall could even be greater. And one of the things about when we have a harder economic times is that human services need more, but we have less money to work with. [00:11:35] Speaker A: Right. Yeah. And those areas you mentioned, healthcare, biotech, would have a disproportionate impact on Massachusetts economy for sure. [00:11:42] Speaker B: Absolutely. And with the FIFA, the tall ships and other big events coming to the city of Boston. Actually regionally, not just Boston, any hotel rooms everywhere regionally that may help us out on things like meals, taxes, remind folks, hotel, motel taxes goes to cities and towns, we don't see that. And we do get some money from rental cars in terms of helping the police academy out of Logan. But the rental tax on cars actually is also tied to cities and towns. So there is a lot of municipal benefit regarding these big tourists. And of course the state does benefit, don't get me wrong, I mean tax and whatnot. But like you Know, hotel, motel, rental cars. You know, a lot of that goes. All of it goes back to siesta towns. [00:12:28] Speaker A: Yeah, I know at least one of the World cup teams is staying at the Marriott in Quincy, and that's very [00:12:33] Speaker B: new for the city of Quincy. It's not. Right. Me. [00:12:36] Speaker A: Right, right, right. [00:12:37] Speaker B: So this is kind of the big thing that I think people don't understand is that the way our tax system set up, not every tax is a state tax. Some of this stuff actually just goes back to municipalities. Never touch it. It's like caraxis tax. Car excise tax doesn't come to the state. The state makes the law, but it's 100% provided to the cities and town. [00:12:56] Speaker A: Oh, yeah, the bill comes from your. Your municipality. Right? Yeah, yeah. [00:13:00] Speaker B: Same thing a minute. Same thing with boat excise taxes. The car excise tax is supposed to go to pay for local roads by the municipality. And, you know, part of the boat excise tax is supposed to help the boating community paid by the municipality. So, you know, people be like, oh, well, we'll pay all this excise taxes. You know, the state should do something about them. Like, sure, go talk to your city council in the mayor, you know, about how they're allocating their funds and how much there is and you know, what they're really using it for. I mean, hold some accountability at that level as well. Because misconception often is that every time you see a word tax, it means it goes to state coffers. That is not true in mass. [00:13:38] Speaker A: Yep, yep. I read earlier this week a story about revenue lottery revenues, at least one of the games seeing a bit of a decline. [00:13:46] Speaker B: That's not surprising. I mean, the lottery is kind of a funky creature because it does ebb and flow like any other economics. But end of the fiscal year, it just kind of irons out on its own. It really does. And scratch tickets continue to be very strong. I mean, it represents well past 50 to 60% of our total sales, unlike other states, which is less than 15% of total sales. [00:14:07] Speaker A: Oh, wow. Okay. [00:14:09] Speaker B: Very unusual on that front. And remember, we have the highest per capita in the country by like four times Rhode island, because our per capita can be anywhere between, you know, 2,500 and 3,500, depending whose math you ask on that front. But, you know, some years can get as high as 6,000, depending again whose math you use. Getting as that for a state of 7 million people, we have a lottery of over 5 billion sales. You know, the per capita for sales is just outrageous. When you compare to the next biggest states, which is like California, Texas, with populations between three and, you know, five times bigger than ours. So. [00:14:51] Speaker A: Yeah, that's interesting. Yeah. So basically most Massachusetts adults have at one time another played the lottery. [00:14:59] Speaker B: Yeah. It's actually kind of disturbing too when you think of it. Right. Because generally smaller states generally have less money to spend on capital and things like gambling. But the Wynn casino is very strong on sales and Plain Ridge is doing all right, although MGM grand is struggling because it is a lower economic zone out in the Springfield region. Plus the fact they're trying to draw people out of Connecticut, New York, and it isn't working the way they would. And that project is small. I mean, MGM grand was. No, it was not a bend like five or two billion dollars. Like the wind. The wind's going to be more than 2 billion when they finish more construction over there on capital projects. I mean, that project was about 850, 900 million dollar project in spring. It shows that that not all casinos create equal, nor can the casino industry put the same amount of capital into it if there's no customers coming. [00:15:50] Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Be curious to see how AI is utilized in the casino world. Or probably already is. [00:15:57] Speaker B: Yeah. I mean, algorithms are new. They know how the customers look like. They have plenty of tracking data. Everyone has reward cards or many people are reward cards. [00:16:04] Speaker A: Oh, yeah, yeah. [00:16:05] Speaker B: And they know the customer flows in and out. I've talked about this before. AI is going to be real problematic when it comes to a couple places of gambling. One is sports betting. [00:16:18] Speaker A: Yes. Because it can change the odds, right? [00:16:21] Speaker B: Well, it can actually tell you what the odds for you are regarding things like parlays. [00:16:26] Speaker A: Oh, interesting. [00:16:27] Speaker B: We talked about this before as a stack freed, as a younger man of baseball. There's so much data out there that it is possible for AI to rapidly make a determination for you what the next pitch, play and outcome may be. Especially things like baseball. Baseball most of all. So, you know, parlays are going to be very problematic for this for all gambling industry. And the other one is really hacking. As you know, we may have heard, Anthropic has created a new thing called Mythos which they contained inside a. Contained inside its own server to test run it and give it instructions, particularly in cyber security. And it escaped the box. [00:17:05] Speaker A: Yes. [00:17:05] Speaker B: And that's a problem because we'll talk a literal box. I mean it's inside a contained area with its own system, computer system. And idea is you test it in a contained space and it somehow. Got it, got it. Out and actually sent emails taunting the people to give instructions and how to get it back into the oil shut, contain it again, get ahead of it. And this is very troubling. Why is that a problem for gambling? Well, it's all online. It's all online, right. And you got a cyber security breach. And I remind you again, take your money out of your, your various sporting gaming accounts because once that's gone, you do not have any rights to get it back. You can sue the gaming company all you want. [00:17:45] Speaker A: Right. [00:17:46] Speaker B: If someone steals it, it's not like it's fd insured. [00:17:51] Speaker A: No, it's. You can just kiss it goodbye. [00:17:52] Speaker B: Yeah, you got to kiss a goodbye. And AI ability to start to invade cyber cyber security. And the gaming industry is very intensely into cyber security, especially online gaming. If Memphis becomes much more of a real threat, I mean the terrorist organization or your neighbor next door perhaps know, rob your gaming account blind online, get it out. I've said this before, many times. Don't keep a lot of money in your gaming accounts. Make sure your money's in your bank account and you know, draw as needed an amount you're going to lose. But if you somehow win, get that money out now. [00:18:29] Speaker A: Right, right, right. [00:18:30] Speaker B: It is far too dangerous in today's cyber world because gaming accounts are going to be easy soft targets. They're not a bank, they're not a telecom company which spends billions of dollars a year to protect your, your accounts. Plus you have FTC F ID insurance. So the brokerage firms, the mega banks, the, the, the Federal Reserve works with them all, you know, to try to secure your, your accounts. [00:19:00] Speaker A: Yeah, I wonder if gaming companies should be required to have insurance like that. [00:19:05] Speaker B: That's a good question. Moving down the road, right, Whether they're gonna, whether they can insure, and I'm not sure what the answer is because it's always a moving target in those accounts. And there's a lot of accounting which I'm sure they keep track of. I'm sure, yeah, but I mean like a win casino was spending grotesque money to try to keep the secure systems. And IGT is the biggest slot machine country in the stock machine manufacturer in the country. You know, also trying to always try to make sure that their system's secure too. So we're living in a very different world. And since all our, you know, most, you know, all of us have money in bank banks, which is you should have your money in the bank. Don't get wrong, don't put in your mattress. You, you definitely, you know, Trust, you know, these industries to do that. Plus you have the FDIC insurance to protect you. So it is, it is a very scary new world out there. And, you know, the people who commit cybercrimes, especially regarding stealing from you, is going to look for the softer targets possible. The softest target is going to be online game. [00:20:03] Speaker A: Right, right, right, right. So go back to. Can we go back to chapter 90 for a little bit? Can you anything about in Quincy there we can talk about chapter 94. [00:20:12] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Chapter 94 is a local cities and town privileges. So think of it like unrestricted local Aid or Chapter 70 money for education, but road and bridge work. So we call it chapter 90 because part of the general laws, chapter 90 revolves anything involving transportation issues. So the city will get about 2.5 million, give or take, out of a $3 million bond. Plus we set aside some money for a shovel ready to emergency projects. So in case, like, there's a disaster happens, there's some bond money rarely available by the governor to disperse immediately because there's like a flooding, mudslide, which actually has happened in the past in western Mass, you know, but it's like wipes out a whole whole road. And you got, you got to get something in there today to, you know, keep access open. Thankfully, we live in Quincy. We don't really have those major problems unless you have a nor', Easter, just wipe out like C Street or wipe out like, you know, West Quantum street or something like that. But even then, emergency management is very good here. And, you know, you just basically pumping. You don't have like, literally the road just disappear. [00:21:14] Speaker A: Right. [00:21:15] Speaker B: So, you know, we're fortunate aside, but other parts of the state, you know, has more like this of having like a mudslide and you don't have those, you know, that money readily available. So, you know, so it's. It's a pretty straightforward bond bill. It's not exciting in terms of like, you know, local earmarks, but, you know, we'll be getting some money back to the city of Quincy and FY. FY27, actually FY28 is when it's going to be dispersed for local, local bridge work. [00:21:45] Speaker A: Okay. All right. So it's. That's been pretty constant over the past few years, that same amount. [00:21:50] Speaker B: Yeah, but it's always about 2.5 plus million dollars, give or take, depending where you're in. We generally have been bonding about $3 million per fiscal cycle for these projects. Sometimes we do 200, sometimes we do 300. It really does depend on the size of the bond cap and what the appetite is regarding emergency projects. The governor's office, so they understand that certain things may happen and we have a set aside if that's all been burnt out in terms of used up. And again, Quincy folks would never realize it because you don't care what's going on in some town in central Massachusetts that had a weather emergency and their roads disappear or does a structural collapse. Collapse that just happened and it was unforeseeable because it was perfectly fine like a month ago. Right. It was like ice storms just took out something. Right. You just don't know can happen. Yeah, it can happen. We're just very fortunate that, you know, we have actually very good infrastructure. The city and the state, you know, has built things to last. Even though I know it's crumbling. I know there's potholes and I drive on the same streets, you know. But we also don't have like sinkholes as often as other places does where you literally have like, you know, 200ft or road just sinking to the ground. [00:23:05] Speaker A: Right. I've seen that happen at the Midwest, I think just swallows up vehicles whole. [00:23:11] Speaker B: Yeah. And you got some places, you know, they're closer to big rivers or brooks that, you know when the, you know, the rattlesnotice here. So when those ice patches melt, it's going to just increase water flow in certain areas. That was pretty dry for quite some time. [00:23:25] Speaker A: Yep, yep, yep. We talked a little bit more. I know we talked about last week, the social media ban plan and the governor releasing her version this week. That seems a little, little different than the House and Senate. [00:23:36] Speaker B: It was also a little late and later. So this is actually a real quandary in terms of procedures. So the, the Senate sent over a bill requiring a cell phone ban inside schools. And then we sent back a bill to the Senate with the banning on cell phone school. Plus associate media banned individuals 14 years or below with some specific caveats associated with special circumstances. And it's actually very straightforward. I mean the exemptions are pretty straightforward regarding protection of certain civil rights. And the rest of it's pretty much, you know what it says, 14 years old and below, you can't use it. And you got some age verification to prove they're not for you're not, you know, 14 below incomplicated folks. So the governor put out her own piece. The problem is that we've already done something in House and we can't debate the same issue twice. [00:24:28] Speaker A: Oh, okay. [00:24:29] Speaker B: So that means the Senate's going to get it? But it's already in conference, and I don't know what this. [00:24:34] Speaker A: Oh, interesting. Okay. Because I read hers. Hers starts at age 18 and below, which seems a lot older. [00:24:42] Speaker B: No country's on 18 below 29. Right. I think 16 is the highest one I've seen. Look, the legislature can operate independently. There was already a bill out there that was not the governor's bill. That was a vehicle used that came out of education, that went to Ways and means, chose to attach that same bill to an existing cell phone ban bill, which the Senate over. Which you now sent back to the Senate, which will force a conference committee. The Senate's never debated issue regarding cell age reduction on. [00:25:11] Speaker A: No, it's brand new to them. [00:25:12] Speaker B: Right to them. So it's going to a conference we've never seen before, and the government's going to file a bill which has become irrelevant because the House can't debate the issue twice, which means that the Senate has already debate the issue because the Senate has not debated the issue. Welcome to the procedural nightmare I live in, folks. The lack of. There's no appreciation for the fact that I have to do with these procedural issues. This is why it takes so long [00:25:35] Speaker A: to get things done. [00:25:36] Speaker B: Sometimes it's not just get things done. There is a process. [00:25:40] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:25:41] Speaker B: You got to know the process. And, you know, I've been talking about process with you for six years, and the process does change because the rules change and circumstances change. Like, Covid process was insane because Covid, like, we're just jumping on sessions like, we need a session now. It was not like, oh, we're planning a session. [00:26:00] Speaker A: Right. Right. [00:26:01] Speaker B: Covid's like, bang, emergency happens. Oh, we gotta do something. Right. Then we move back to a more normal pace, and the pace changed again because of the. Of the changing rules in the area. [00:26:11] Speaker A: Mm. [00:26:11] Speaker B: So, I mean, our lives keep rotating. You gotta know how the place operates. So there's always a little lack of appreciation of my ability to keep in my head, you know, the migration of bills and the roofs that are allowed to move things and not move things. [00:26:24] Speaker A: Yeah, no, I think that's. [00:26:25] Speaker B: I think that's true. [00:26:26] Speaker A: That's what we try and do here. Sometimes attacking talk is give a little behind the scenes. [00:26:30] Speaker B: Yeah. And you can see how I mentally keep track of all this stuff. [00:26:36] Speaker A: Multitasking. [00:26:37] Speaker B: Yes. Yeah. No, I got to keep this all in my head. And, like, also the different processes of bills moving through committee. Well, the governor filed a bill. We already did a bill. The Senate hasn't done a bill. Not sure how this plays out yet because it's in the Senate's court. But how do you want to manage the issue? [00:26:51] Speaker A: Okay. All right, well, we'll see. I'll get John Keenan to talk about that. [00:26:56] Speaker B: Yeah, I have to ask John about if they have a plan, if they're going to debate the bill separately themselves. [00:27:01] Speaker A: Sure. Should we talk about the world as it exists, like we usually do? [00:27:09] Speaker B: Well, I learned something new yesterday that I was not accurate on. I didn't realize that the farmers in this country did not buy all the fertilizer ahead of the Iran war, which is problematic because obviously the price is going to go up because fertilizer cost is going berserker expensive. So an estimated 20%, give or take of the US farmers have actually already bought the fertilizer in advance. So their price structures are going to be dramatically different in terms of fertilizer costs associated with food inflation. But the other part, other ones have not had either full buy or no buy yet prior to Iran war. As we all discovered, it's not just gas oil that comes out of the Persian Gulf. It's also fertilizer, helium and aluminum, other things that come out of the Persian Gulf, which is now still trapped there for six weeks. So what does it mean for your pocketbook? Well, you're already filling your pocketbook on gas. You're filling your pocketbook with diesel increase, which means that things being trucked here is more expensive. I already got complaints about produce prices going up huge. [00:28:19] Speaker A: Really? [00:28:19] Speaker B: People have already started complaining to me about that because your produce largely comes from deep south, California and tropical, and your live also comes out of Mexico. So $7 diesel is a real problem. And I've seen Diesel approaching over 6 and above in Massachusetts too, which means that local movement of local product, it's going to go by truck. [00:28:41] Speaker A: Yep. [00:28:42] Speaker B: So the fertilizer cost, as these farms buy their fertilizer now, you're going to see those impacts in three ways. One is yield, how much can they produce? Second is what they're going to produce because the amount of resources for each farm product has different resource requirements. And the third thing that you're going to see is that it's not going to happen right away. The price structure won't increase until the harvest season. Closing on harvest, which means that, you know, for a lot of these produce, let's say like watermelon, which is imported and also grow domestically, you probably won't see those huge price comes up until August, when this high season for, for watermelon corn generally starts Peaking late July, right into the fall. And it's a global commodity too. Corn is like wheat. Soybeans is a central product globally. So you're going to, you know, and it's given the fact that Asian countries have already been immediately impacted and everything in the southern hemisphere, you know, is being impacted by the current fuel prices in the Persian gallon and fertilizer and aluminum, your cans are going to cost more. You know, that effect will be seen over time. It won't be like tomorrow morning, but it's going to be seen over time. So we're upset, like my friends have been calling me upset about produce prices going up because of associated diesel. Imagine what happens if nothing changes and you have high diesel prices in the fall plus higher produce prices caused by the fertilizer shortage. [00:30:16] Speaker A: Yeah. I mean it impacts virtually everything because everything travels either by truck, by air, by boat or by rail. Right. [00:30:25] Speaker B: And the fertilizer has to try by what it does means too. Right. There was word today that the, you know, the Europeans energy group has announced that they're going to have a project fuel shortage. [00:30:37] Speaker A: Okay. [00:30:38] Speaker B: So there might be reduced flights to Europe from the United States and within you and themselves, Europe themselves regarding transportation. So they're looking at like six week reserves on jet fuel, which is where they keep for security purposes, reserves are six weeks. So if they find themselves, you know, in that shortage level with Stein tapping reserves, you may not be trapped in Europe, but your flight may be not the flight you would like to have. [00:31:03] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:31:04] Speaker B: And this also impacts us domestically because not all jet field is made in this continent. Contrary to what you hear from Washington. We are self sufficient in certain ways, but we're part of the global economy in other ways. Jet fuel is an example that we make jet fuel. And what else makes jet fuel? You need jet fuel in your country of destination because they need jet fuel to send you home from wherever you're going. [00:31:27] Speaker A: Right. [00:31:28] Speaker B: People are like oh well we make jet fuel. Yes, we do. But you know, your airline does go to another country if you're traveling and they need jet fuel in that country that can send you back. [00:31:38] Speaker A: Yes. We can't do any midair refueling on passenger jets. [00:31:41] Speaker B: Yeah. It isn't like you bring more fuel to the country of destinations and you said fuel to bring it home. And I think it's the misconception that D.C. is putting out there to you and I in the public. Oh, you're not affected. And then we're affected not just because it's a global economy, but you have to think Your three logically, how this works. If I'm going to go to England from the United States and there's a jet fuel shortage in England, how am I going to get home from England? [00:32:08] Speaker A: By boat? [00:32:10] Speaker B: Well, yeah, that's kind of. You'll be on a cargo ship. Right. So I think one of the big misnomers the DC is putting out is their inability to actually like they're forcing us not to use common sense. Right. They're saying a lot of stuff that on the surface sounds like common sense. But let's think this through, people. If I'm driving from one state to another state and that state has no gas left, how am I going to get home? [00:32:34] Speaker A: Right. [00:32:36] Speaker B: Right. That's called common sense. Right. And this is. You have to look at the fuel prices. Yeah. [00:32:44] Speaker A: I read this morning there's a discount air carrier that's planning on filing for bankruptcy because of the high cost of [00:32:50] Speaker B: jet fuel and the big airlines looking to merge, which could be very problematic for consumers if there's more mergers because it affects price structure, we have greater monopoly money because all monopolize the situation. And whether or not, you know, this administration, which is very tricky because it's a little bit of guesswork about, you know, what they got dereg and what they're going to increase Reagan in order to, you know, allow for mergers, not to merge. And there seems to be certain whims of the president whether merger goes through or not. [00:33:21] Speaker A: Right. [00:33:21] Speaker B: Which affects you and I because we're the ones who pay the consequences of it. Remember? You know, he doesn't. He really doesn't. And however the ballot box in November, you know, maybe Congress members will be affected. So it's easy in some ways. We don't have to live in the same world we all live in because as I was mindful, you can always grab me a star market that's happened more than once, you know, with a question of concern. And you know, and you guys all know I keep it on fuel prices locally as well as well as, you know, taking my mom to test medical. You know, the pine street in one in that corner. So when I look at is the first one I look at when it gets Boston. So, you know, it's, it's. Yeah. Again, the global issue is real and it's also funny because it's. There's a blockade in the straight of Hormuz and a second blockade in the straight. It's actually kind of an interesting statement when you say there's two blockades on a straight. There's Only one way in, one way out. [00:34:19] Speaker A: Right. So there's the US blockade and then the Iranian blockade, right? [00:34:23] Speaker B: Yeah, like a blockade plus a blockade. [00:34:25] Speaker A: Right. [00:34:26] Speaker B: The most bizarre statement to make by two different countries. And you know, the Iranians go to survival as we talked about this before, when your objective is survive and you're surviving, you have the upper hand. And you know, it's not like they're democracy and like we said before, the population isn't harmed. It's not like there's going to be an armed rebellion. And the Republic Guard is special part of the army that's a republic guard is running independently and still in control. Main military is not going to charge challenge the Republican Guard. This is other types of dictatorships where or certain democracies depending where you are in the world where the military has enormous say about how the government's run. It's not a scenario where the army has a say. It's a Republican Guard which is its own special unit which is better armed, better equipped, better organized than the general army. This calling the shots plus the theocracy, plus their president. So you know, it's a lot of mystery here about how they're operating but to me the Republican Guard is clearly in charge because they're the ones who have the guns and that's kind of how that works in those dictatorships. So you know, we'll see how it goes on negotiation. On the flip side, you know, Lebanon and Israel had the first talks in decades and it's another problematic issue because the Lebanese government is under resourced versus Hezbollah. [00:35:51] Speaker A: Yeah, they just this morning they agreed to a 10 day ceasefire. I'm not sure when it takes effect [00:35:55] Speaker B: or not, but yeah, the Lebanese are really under resource taking on Hezbollah. [00:36:01] Speaker A: Right. [00:36:02] Speaker B: So I mean this is kind of the tenuous position of Lebanon where they have both a terrorist organization and is actually a political group at the same time inside government. [00:36:15] Speaker A: Yeah, I don't know that Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire. [00:36:19] Speaker B: I'll tell you no. And they got the Houthis in Yemen that are sitting, you know, still waiting it out in the Red Sea about whether or not they're going to actually take action to shut off the Red Sea, which is where what little oil that's coming out is through a pipeline across Saudi Arabia at 7 million barrel, 7 million barrels today. And if that pipeline's been hit once, they could be hit a second time. And it's coming through the Red Sea. That comes self batter on Africa to get out of there. And if that gets shut off, you know the global market's going to be triggered again. So the president's obviously now moving from bombing place to try to do economic strangulation to try to get them to capitulate. And they're also very apart. I mean, the US position is no nuclear weapons, but also no nuclear build out for 20 years, which is actually very similar to the deal that Obama put together regarding 15 years, which yes, it's kind of a funny history repeats itself. Also they want all the rich uranium, which is going to be a problem because who's going to go get that stuff? But that's a detail. And then they want to straight up who's open before they can negotiate any further. Well, the Iranian standpoint is that, well, they got one big bargaining ship. Why would they give it up right away? And I think that's, I mean, that's the art of negotiation is that I got one complete thing where I'm strangled holding the planning economy and I'm basing strangling all of Asia, which is half the world economy, by one straight. I mean, why would I give that up? [00:37:49] Speaker A: Right? No, it does seem to be at a stalemate at the moment. Yeah, yeah. [00:37:53] Speaker B: And you know, nuclear power is important to Iran because they don't refine their own oil to use it. They sell every. And nuclear is, you know, crucial because it's not a fossil fuel base allows them to generate electricity while selling, you know, the more precious product out of the country. [00:38:10] Speaker A: Right. [00:38:11] Speaker B: So, you know, people think that, you know, these oil creation states, oil states are creating, you know, refineries, local use. They do, but it's like gasoline. You do government subsidized gasoline, for example. But I mean, it's actually more valuable for them to sell it and keep [00:38:27] Speaker A: it similar to this country. [00:38:31] Speaker B: Yeah, yes. When you're in a disadvantaged economic position, you sell your most favorable products. That's why nuclear is important to those countries because, you know, it allows them to use the most valid product while maintaining, you know, electrical grid. But again, the potential byproduct of nuclear reactors is retraining them, which creates, you know, bomb. And no one want every do that because you all know we have no sympathy whatsoever for the IRA of the democracy that basically murders their own people by the tens of thousands. And you know, government positions to blow up the United States in the western world. I mean, no sympathy for them. But also the political and economic reality is they do actually control a significant part of the world economy. You feel those impacts here. [00:39:18] Speaker A: Stay tuned, as they say. [00:39:22] Speaker B: Well, I think you guys all should understand easily that, you know, you got one big bargaining ship. Why would you surrender right away? And if you go to survival and things are just fine in terms of the fact that your regime is still somehow intact, battered, beaten and killed, somehow mostly intact, you know, it's hard for, you know, you've done your job right. [00:39:46] Speaker A: Leaves the Fed back here at home with quandary as to what to do going forward. [00:39:51] Speaker B: Yeah. You got several things in the Fed level, right? Yeah. You got domestic issues where, you know, you got domestic issues regarding the fact that you have a lot of people unhappy with the situation with the, with Iran. You have the Venezuela issue that continues to be moving forward, which no one's paying attention to suddenly. And that's, that's still not truly settled. You got the Cuba issue, which has dedicated a lot of resources. We've moved out some missile batteries and ships out of the eastern area, the Pacific area, which opens vulnerabilities. And our allies, but also aren't controlling shipping lanes. We control shipping. The US Navy control shipping. So more resources removed opens opportunity for other local powers, which is China's world power, you know, to fill the void that we leave behind. Which means they get to control the shipping. [00:40:44] Speaker A: Right. [00:40:44] Speaker B: Or pirates get to control the shipping lanes. [00:40:46] Speaker A: Right. [00:40:46] Speaker B: Earnings are real thing. [00:40:48] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:40:49] Speaker B: And obviously it affects your tax dollars in your pocketbook because the big beautiful bill, you know, added to the deficit and then they want $1.4 trillion to pay for more military costs and you know, those recorded out there still that the President does not believe that the federal government should do programs that should dedicate 100% of revenue towards defense and should cost shift those programs to the state level. Which means that some states are going to have to increase their taxes to maintain programs or they're not going to raise taxes. The forced migration of people to other states that have higher taxes that can maintain programs. So New York, Massachusetts, California may see migration from states that are poor who refuse to maintain programs. There is a huge level of future impacts that, you know, will be more apparent as time goes along if, if we continue the current path. Right. [00:41:45] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:41:45] Speaker B: So there's a lot of things going on here that is very distracting. And of course you have the Epstein files, which people will not stop talking about, which is still floating out there. And you still have ice roaming around. You still have the Homeland Security shutdown going on. On. And you know, there's a potential shutdowns later on this year depending on when those resolutions expire. Plus you have local election, special elections, and you also have congressional elections. [00:42:11] Speaker A: Okay. [00:42:12] Speaker B: Oh, and there's a little war. There's a little war in Ukraine still going on now. Yeah. The Ukraine has long gone to the Gulf states providing drone defense. And I'm sure the Gulf states are very happy to pay the Ukrainians for that drone defense. And for those who are paying little attention to European politics, Viktor Orban has been removed as his. Him and his entire party has been removed in Hungary. And you're thinking, well, why does that matter? Well, it matters because not just because he's a Trump ally, he's also a Russian ally and a very corrupt. And he rigged the constitution to make sure his party stays in power. And he got beat by his own rules because the opposing party, which is conformed with both centrics and left, that actually is the young party, came out and took out my super majority. Not a majority, a super majority to take to restore basically politics back to the people. Sounds familiar. Something might be to some recent circumstances around here. But no, that's a big deal. And it also frees up money from the EU back to Hungary and also closes off a Putin ally on that part of the country. And then you got Maloney and Italy who has denounced the president's commentaries about Pope Leo. Because I don't know how Pope Leo is not tough on crime. It's not like he. Again, it's like this weird statements. Tough on crime is Republican statement from the days of Nixon. It's not new. It's just funny. The application makes no sense because he's the Pope and they run the Vatican. And this, this logic. Right. So Meloni, who is a Trump ally in Italy has now switched gears and she's also under threat because she tried to change the constitution to change judiciary, which oddly enough, some of it wasn't crazy. Some would actually make some sense. But because her, her time as prime minister has been so negative. The pres. The population vote of down has changes in the judiciary which actually probably actually loosened the judiciary's ability to investigate politicians, which the public did not go for. [00:44:17] Speaker A: Right. [00:44:18] Speaker B: So there's another example of actually a top 10 economy where being in line with Donald Trump has hurt her politically at home. Meanwhile, the same things happen in Germany as well as Spain where polling's so bad for Donald Trump that they've shifted really the other direction away from America position which used to be very popular believe that people were with politicians support America. And Starmer is in trouble with England because he's like pulled 90 different ways on Tuesday of things he has no control over and he's having a real domestic problem and he has a super majority in parliament and super majority is now having a real problem with his governing of the uk. So yeah, I mean, you know, I. Not all these elect are these elections relevant to you? Well, it also reflects the fact that, you know, how the DC and the folks in the White House comment about our European allies and friends, you know, completely ignore the domestic components regarding local politics and local politicians. The answers to their voters. Not to you as a voter, you as a voter means nothing to somebody that's living in Germany. You know, they as a voter, they care about their voters. Keeping them in. And the Trump effect has resulted in a negative shift. Meanwhile, Latin America, the Trump effect actually helped countries like Argentina and Peru a little bit. Peru's actually having a major election too where they're actually having the daughter of a former convicted president, convicted president running for president in Peru, which I find actually astonishing that like in the Philippines that Mark Marcos's kid is running the Philippines now. [00:46:06] Speaker A: Right. [00:46:06] Speaker B: Remember Fernand Marcos. Those of us, of course, you know, it's just marveling the fact that this terrible dictator has kids running a country. And same thing out in Korea they had a military dictator run in, his daughter run the country in Korea. She got impeached and removed and went to jail. And the most recent president also was impeached, removed and it's going to go to jail too for, for basic sedition because he did martial law for no reason. [00:46:35] Speaker A: Right. [00:46:36] Speaker B: Protect himself, nobody else. So you know, you got again the, you know, accountability in government is something that's really globally happening now in you know, South Korea, you know, in Europe. And Netanyahu is facing a very tough election in Israel right now in a very unpopular war in the local populations gradually rising because no one knows what their real objectives are in the end. Those destroy people destroy X group. Well, define destroying X group. Right. And NHA is going to face a very tougher election, his coalition government coming up as well. So yeah, there's a lot going on in elections and local politicians in other countries are taking advantage of the Trump effect to, to win elections. Guys. Wow, good. [00:47:30] Speaker A: It's, it's a good time I guess to be a political observer or, or writer. [00:47:36] Speaker B: Well and people also keep thinking NATO is like an extension of US military. That's a myth that Trump likes to put out there. They're independent running militaries that work in a coalition for self defense, that the deterrent coalition. So I mean, yeah, I mean the US basically runs it in the sense of the military size. But the NATO general secretary doesn't is the European side. So it's a balance act between the US Actually you know, controlling the whole military in the end because they're the coordinator. And then the Europeans have a say regarding how it's implemented, how it's run. Administrative. Yeah, it's always been this really interesting coalition partnership. The myth is that it's unilateral on the European side and unilateral and American side it's not. It only works because it's a partnership, not a unilateral. And the president keeps putting this myth out there. The public, it's a unilateral entity. It's not. It can't function as a unilateral entity. And like I said, the differential. Correct. And as well as the other countries like what's one or two frigates from Europe mean to the biggest navy in the world where again all the ships combined the US has, you know, and you look at the G8 countries, the biggest economies of planet. We have more firepower in the ocean all combined by a lot. So, you know, if you're sitting here thinking that, you know, they're not being helpful. Well they won't. They're not going to add any benefit it anyway. [00:49:06] Speaker A: All we can do is control what we can do here in our own little world here in Quincy. [00:49:11] Speaker B: Well, I mean in my world, you know, we're doing budget amendments next week. I'll reveal people's ask for budget co co sponsoring. So it's a quiet week next week in terms of State House. The Ways and Means Committee will look at most likely some between 1200 and 1600amendments over the course of next week. We'll start the budget debate on Monday. The 27th I think is the is the start date on Monday. [00:49:34] Speaker A: That's a Monday. Yep. [00:49:36] Speaker B: We'll be debating a minimum three days, maybe four going into May. Generally the week after the budget, it's fairly quiet. But you know, we're actually trying to get a lot of stuff done right now. So we might be, we may, you know, 50. I would say it's a 50, 50% chance. We'll be debating the week of May 7th. Okay, there's a 50. 50 there because we're kind of in a crunch run against the stuff done. And you know, the agenda is still kind of an evolution but as you've heard about the cell phones and the social media band, you know, this is a continuing evolution of the schedule. It's very different from past years where we Said, you know, these are our priorities. When we can talk about healthcare. We don't have, we do have, we did an energy bill. I mean, you know, we have some mainstay stuff that we'll continue to talk about. But I mean in terms of the agenda item and so it's going to continue involved between the House, Senate, governor and a large part that's contingent on what the federal government does. [00:50:29] Speaker A: Right, right. Right. [00:50:31] Speaker B: Or not do, depending on what you're in and what they were in. [00:50:34] Speaker A: Right. [00:50:35] Speaker B: So your state government is, is trying to figure out, you know, how to respond. [00:50:42] Speaker A: Bob and weave. Bob and weave is what you're doing. [00:50:45] Speaker B: How we respond when the feds respond is what would become. [00:50:48] Speaker A: Yeah, we're out of time, believe it or not. [00:50:51] Speaker B: Yeah. The good hours slipped through the tracks and our fingers again. This time was on so about what, 50ish minutes. [00:50:57] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:51:00] Speaker B: So yeah, we are in the Office Room 42 at the State House. As you can tell, I'm in my dining room today. I was in the state, I was actually the past two days and obviously I'll be there during budget weekend and you guys see me more often in the state of so 6177-2237-0617-7370 is the main number. Please wait. The automated system is not mine. It takes time to get to my name after the first set of reps. We do have someone at the front desk but again it can get overwhelming a little bit on certain days. Tacky Chan T a c k e y CA and the MVHouse t a c k e y c H [email protected] is my email. I expect a deluge of hundreds of emails coming in asking for co sponsoring soon. We have statements of tacky chan which is a Facebook account with the corresponding tacky underscore chan on Instagram. We do have MA legislature.gov which I strongly recommend people go like watch my public hearing writing pennies yesterday. There's only about 30 odd minutes and we had a roll call in the middle. So it was like live action of trying to run a hearing in the midst of a session. But you know you can watch, talk about, see and you know how other industries are impacted by pennies and obviously you can watch the former session. So MA legislature.gov strongly encourage to use tackychan.org we're doing some updates soon on our service set and service parts of our page. There's been some changes we can talk about later on about some service agency changes and then we also have Joe here that we talk about once every week or so. And of course. Qatvatv.org qatvatv.org Please send Joe an email if you want to talk about other stuff, about anything. You want to talk about cooking, you want to talk about fashion, you want to talk about movies. You bring a topic up to Joe, he'll be happy to talk about something. Doesn't have to be about politics. [00:53:08] Speaker A: That's right. [00:53:09] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:53:09] Speaker A: We're open here. That's absolutely true. We're unscripted. [00:53:13] Speaker B: Yeah. You could talk about the academies. I don't know, whatever. You may want to hear me talk about something different. I think Joe and I would be happy to change topics around. [00:53:21] Speaker A: Absolutely. Yeah, we're open here for sure. All right. [00:53:25] Speaker B: Look forward to that. [00:53:25] Speaker A: Thanks, Techie. [00:53:26] Speaker B: Thank you, Joe.